The DNA of organised crime is changing, as well as the threat to Europe

Europol’s EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment (EU-SOCTA) 2025, published last March 18th, revealed how the very DNA of crime is shifting – reshaping the tactics, tools and structures employed by criminal networks.

The EU-SOCTA offers one of the most thorough analyses conducted on the threats posed by serious organised crime to the EU’s internal security. Based on intelligence from EU Member States and international law enforcement partners, this report not only analyses the state of organised crime today – it anticipates threats of tomorrow, providing a roadmap for Europe’s law enforcement and policymakers to stay ahead of ever-evolving organised crime.

And evolve it has. The latest EU-SOCTA reveals that the DNA of organised crime is fundamentally changing, making it more entrenched and more destabilising than ever before.

A changing DNA: how organised crime is mutating

Just as DNA shapes the blueprint of life, the blueprint of organised crime is being rewritten. No longer bound by traditional structures, organised crime has adapted to a world shaped by global instability, digitalisation and emerging technologies.

The EU-SOCTA identifies three defining characteristics of today’s serious and organised crime landscape:

1. Crime is increasingly destabilising

Serious and organised crime is no longer just a threat to public safety; it impacts the very foundations of the EU’s institutions and society. The destabilising properties and effects of serious and organised crime can be seen on two fronts:

• Internally, through the laundering or reinvestment of illicit proceeds, corruption, violence and the criminal exploitation of young perpetrators;
• Externally, with criminal networks increasingly operating as proxies in the service of hybrid threat actors, a cooperation which is mutually reinforcing.

2. Crime is nurtured online 

Digital infrastructures drive criminal operations – enabling illicit activities to scale up and adapt at unprecedented speed.

Nearly all forms of serious and organised crime have a digital footprint, whether as a tool, target or facilitator. From cyber fraud and ransomware to drug trafficking and money laundering, the internet has become the primary theatre for organised crime. Criminal networks increasingly exploit digital infrastructure to conceal their activities from law enforcement, while data emerges as the new currency of power – stolen, traded and exploited by criminal actors.

3. Crime is accelerated by AI and emerging technologies

AI is fundamentally reshaping the organised crime landscape. Criminals rapidly exploit new technologies, using them both as a catalyst for crime and a driver of efficiency. The same qualities that make AI revolutionary – accessibility, adaptability and sophistication – also make it a powerful tool for criminal networks. These technologies automate and expand criminal operations, making them more scalable and harder to detect.

The fastest-growing threats 

This evolving criminal DNA is embedded in the most pressing security threats identified in the EU-SOCTA 2025. The report highlights seven key areas where criminal networks are becoming more sophisticated and dangerous:

• Cyber-attacks, mostly ransomware but increasingly attacks targeting critical infrastructure, governments, businesses and individuals – often with state-aligned objectives.
• Online fraud schemes, increasingly driven by AI-powered social engineering and access to vast amounts of data including stolen personal information.
• Online child sexual exploitation, with generative AI producing child sexual abuse material and facilitating online grooming.
• Migrant smuggling, with networks charging extortionate fees and showing complete disregard for human dignity, exploiting geopolitical crises.
• Drug trafficking, a diversifying market with changing routes, modus operandi and the potential further spread of violence and recruitment of young people across the EU.
• Firearms trafficking, which is expanding due to technological advancements, online marketplaces and weapons availability in Europe.
• Waste crime, an often overlooked but lucrative sector where criminals exploit legitimate businesses, severely impacting the environment.

While some threats play out in the physical world, elements of every criminal process are increasingly moving online – from recruitment and communication to payment systems and AI-driven automation.

Breaking the criminal code 

The key criminal threats identified in the EU-SOCTA 2025 share common reinforcing elements that sustain and amplify them in different ways. To tackle these threats effectively, law enforcement must take these cross-cutting elements into account when designing strategies to tackle serious and organised crime.

The DNA of serious and organised crime is strongly embedded in the way criminal networks operate, as they find opportunities to act as proxies for hybrid threat actors in the online realm and use AI and technology for criminal purposes. In addition, criminal networks operate across borders or even from within prison, adapting their tactics to benefit their operations.

Criminal finances and money laundering methods continue to evolve, with illicit proceeds increasingly channelled into a parallel financial system designed to protect and grow criminal wealth. Digital platforms and emerging technologies such as blockchain facilitate this system, making it more resilient to disruption.

Corruption remains one of the most insidious enablers of organised crime, facilitating illicit activities across all sectors. It has adapted to the digital age, with criminals increasingly targeting individuals who have access to critical digital systems and using digital recruitment tactics to extend their reach.

Organised crime-related violence is intensifying in several Member States and spilling over into wider society. This violence moves with and is shaped by criminal markets prone to competition and conflict. It is further fuelled by encrypted communication tools and online platforms that facilitate borderless recruitment, extortion and coordination.

The criminal exploitation of young perpetrators not only tears at the social fabric but also serves as a protective layer for criminal leadership, shielding those at the top from identification or prosecution.

These reinforcing tactics allow criminal networks to expand, maximise profits and strengthen their resilience, creating a self-perpetuating cycle. Breaking this cycle requires law enforcement to integrate strategies that target both the key criminal markets and the underlying mechanisms that sustain them.

More information: Europol