In a context of a changing climate, weather conditions in Europe are becoming more and more extreme. What phenomena such as heat waves, droughts, floods and forest fires could this summer bring? The outlook is pessimistic, as seen during the past winter and spring. This makes adaptation to climate change and increased preparedness crucial, according to a website on extreme weather events launched by the European Environment Agency. It explains the main weather-related climate challenges we face.
Using the latest available data, the EEA’s new website “Extreme summer weather in a changing climate: is Europe prepared?” takes a closer look at the main extreme summer weather events that are increasingly affecting Europe’s population, economy and nature. Users can view interactive maps and graphs with information on heat waves, floods, droughts and forest fires, and the increase in certain diseases due to climate change, such as dengue fever. Information sections on each of these extremes review past events, what we can expect in the future according to scientific projections, and how prepared we are to cope with them, with descriptions of examples and best practices across Europe.
The aim of this website is to provide up-to-date information and data to raise awareness among decision-makers and the general public of the urgent need to address climate change and to support the efforts that administrations are making to take action to mitigate climate change and to strengthen society’s preparedness.
Outlook: what will the summer bring?
More, stronger and longer heatwaves
Heatwaves that are dangerous to human health – such as the heatwaves of summer 2022 – are becoming more frequent, longer and more intense and will continue to do so under all climate scenarios. In southern Europe, in particular, there may be more than 60 summer days during which conditions endanger human health, meaning more deaths and hospitalisations, especially among the elderly and infirm, unless adaptation measures are taken. Heat waves are the deadliest extreme weather events in Europe and the increasing vulnerability of Europe’s population due to ageing and urbanisation requires urgent action to prevent loss of life.
More frequent and extreme flooding
Intense precipitation is projected to increase across most of Europe, leading to more flooding, especially in north-western and central Europe. Adaptation measures are needed to protect society from the worst effects, such as those caused by the July 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium.
The exposure of people and property to this risk continues with the ongoing urbanisation of floodplains, often putting the most vulnerable populations and infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, at risk. Between 1980 and 2021, damage caused by floods amounted to almost 258 billion Euros and is increasing by more than 2% per year on average.
More frequent and severe droughts
Since 2018, more than half of Europe has experienced extreme drought events, both in winter and summer. Droughts in 2022 substantially reduced harvests of crops such as maize, soybeans and olive oil. Another dry winter does not bode well for the summer and the outlook is gloomy. Last winter, which was exceptionally dry and warm, led to fewer snow days and resulted in low soil moisture, reduced river flows and reduced water storage in reservoirs in most southern and western European countries.
Long-term climate projections indicate that southern and central Europe will become even drier and hotter during the 21st century, with devastating consequences for the agricultural sector. Total economic losses in all economic sectors caused by drought are expected to increase by the end of this century, from the current EUR 9 billion per year to EUR 25 billion per year with 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) of global warming; to EUR 31 billion per year with 2°C of warming; and to EUR 45 billion per year with 3°C of warming, based on scientific estimates.
Most widespread forest fires
Most forest fires in Europe are caused by human activities, but climatic conditions – hot, dry periods with strong winds – determine their intensity and impact. Forest fires largely affect southern Europe, but also, increasingly, central and even northern Europe. Since 1980, 712 people have lost their lives across Europe as a direct result of forest fires. The 2022 forest fire season was the second worst since 2000, with more than 5 000 km2 (twice the area of Luxembourg) burned during the summer months (June, July and August) and an unprecedented area of Natura2000 protected natural areas affected.
Under the high-emission climate change scenario, southern Europe, in particular the Iberian Peninsula, will experience a considerable increase in the number of days with high fire danger. The number of people living in the forest area immediacies who are exposed to high to extreme levels of fire risk for at least 10 days per year would increase by 15 million (+24%) under the 3°C global warming scenario.
Heat waves and the spread of infectious diseases due to climate change are growing health threats |
Increase in diseases due to climate change
Some disease-carrying species are widespread in Europe (such as ticks that can spread Lyme borreliosis or tick-borne encephalitis), while others are invasive (such as Aedes albopictus, also known as the tiger mosquito that can spread dengue fever). A warmer climate means that both endemic and invasive species may spread further north or be present at higher altitudes than in the past. Large parts of Europe are expected to have a suitable climate for the tiger mosquito, especially in western Europe, which could become a hotspot for the tiger mosquito by the end of the century.
Malaria could also re-emerge in Europe due to the widespread presence of the Anopheles species of mosquito, which is capable of transmitting the disease. Increased rainfall and standing water create more habitat for mosquitoes, and warmer temperatures increase the rate of mosquito bites and the development of the Plasmodium parasite that causes malaria.
What is being done to address the problem?
Preparing our societies for climate change in Europe is driven by an EU policy framework (mainly the EU Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and the European Climate Act) and national policies. All EU Member States, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey (EEA member countries), already have national adaptation policies in place. The EEA monitors national adaptation planning and implementation using information reported by Member States and other sources.
However, more can be done to link adaptation policies with sectoral policies, for example in the area of health. While most national adaptation policies and health strategies take into account the effects of heat on the cardiovascular and respiratory system, less than half take into account the direct effects of heat, such as dehydration or heat stress.
There is an urgent need to improve the implementation of adaptation measures such as action plans for thermal health, increasing the number of green and blue spaces (trees and water) in cities, which can reduce temperatures and flood risk, or monitoring and early detection of increases in infectious diseases exacerbated by climate change.
Adaptation is urgent in agriculture. Farmers can limit the adverse effects of rising temperatures and droughts by adapting crop varieties, changing planting dates and modifying irrigation patterns. Without further adaptation, profitability and income from farming are expected to decline in the future.
In practice, measures are often implemented at the regional level, so the commitment of local and regional authorities to adaptation is crucial. More than 4,500 cities and towns are signatories to the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, committed to action on adaptation, and more than 300 regional and local administrations have signed the EU Mission Charter on Adaptation to Climate Change. This latest EEA tool includes numerous examples of adaptation measures implemented across Europe from the EEA’s Climate-ADAPT portal.
More information: EEA
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