The EU needs to invest €70 billion per year in climate adaptation until 2050.

The EU, its Member States and the private sector should invest around €70 billion per year until 2050 in climate adaptation to reduce exposure to increasing climate risks and improve resilience, according to a new study commissioned by the Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and funded by Horizon Europe.

Investing in our future

Investing in adaptation and resilience has become more urgent than ever as the trend towards warmer global temperatures continues and the socio-economic costs of climate-related events continue to rise.

The study, which focuses on adaptation investment needs and abstracts from the costs of climate events, is the first of its kind and fills an important knowledge gap. It uses a common methodology to estimate adaptation investment needs for the EU and each Member State, analysing the risk groups identified in the 2024 European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and individual adaptation measures at EU and Member State level. It draws on the best available information sources and a wide range of academic research.

The study concludes that of the €70 billion per year that needs to be invested in adaptation, around €30 billion is needed for infrastructure, €21 billion for ecosystems and €12 billion for food security.

France, Italy, Germany and Spain have the greatest adaptation investment needs, partly due to their geographical and economic size. The study also reveals that the scale and types of investments needed vary significantly between Member States, depending on the characteristics of each country.

The findings are based on a four-step methodology focused on (1)identifying climate risks, based on EUCRA and National Adaptation Plans and Strategies; (2) identifying adaptation measures and mapping them to EUCRA risks; (3) identifying cost data for a shortlist of adaptation measures; and (4) scaling the cost data to the level and characteristics of the Member State. Each step is fully documented in detailed methodological reports, published alongside the study, to ensure transparency and replicability.

Key messages and recommendations

The study highlights that the current supply of adaptation funding is insufficient and that investing in adaptation generates collateral benefits, including for climate change mitigation.

While the study represents a major step forward in understanding the scale and nature of adaptation investment needs, it emphasises that better data on adaptation costs is needed.

Adaptation investment needs and climate risks should also be better integrated into national budget planning, given the primary role that the public sector will play in implementing adaptation measures.

Finally, the study highlights that further work is needed to assess needs under a variety of climate scenarios, desired resilience targets and residual risks, and to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio of adaptation measures.

This study is being published as the Commission prepares a newintegrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management to help Member States prevent and prepare for the increasing impacts of climate change.

Further information: European Commission.